Source: ThinkstockUntil about 2008 or so, discussion about the future price of crude oil was directed by the concept of peak oil. That is, when does the world reach peak production, after which the price of crude will skyrocket. In less than a decade, the discussion is now focused on the concept of “peak demand,” the point at which global demand for crude begins to decline.
The recent Oil & Money conference in London sharpened the focus on peak demand. Saudi Arabia’s minister of energy and industry, Khalid Al-Falih, told conference attendees that cutbacks in capital spending on exploration, forced on the industry by low prices for the past twoyears, could mean that shortfalls in supply are coming.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) CEO Rex Tillerson disagreed:
Top Low Price Stocks To Watch For 2018: Statoil ASA(STO)
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Should oil prices recover, we believe that deepwater drilling activity growth should lag growth in US shale activity, as project economics is generally better in US shales, and E&Ps involved in US shales are generally quicker to react. Deepwater activity is largely comprises a handful of companies (Petrobras (PBR), Statoil (STO), Total (TOT), Shell (RDS.A), BP (BP), ONGC, ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX)) and it is unlikely that these companies can meaningfully increase their rig demand in a short period of time to absorb the current oversupply. Thus, should oil prices rise in 2018, rig demand may increase, but likely not enough to tighten the market, given that supply equaling 43% of current working rig count is stacked and new supply equaling 25% of working rig count is under-construction and should be entering the market in the coming years. As a result, while we expect some improvement in rig utilization owing to rig retirements, it will unlikely be strong enough to meaningfully improve rates in 2018 above spot levels. Any demand increase in the interim could slow rig retirements materially, and be self-defeating. We thus are Sell rated on Transocean, Atwood and Noble.
- [By Todd Shriber, ETF Professor]
NORW reflects Norway's oil exposure. The ETF allocates nearly 28.8 percent of its weight to the energy, 870 basis points more than it devotes to its second-largest sector exposure, financial services. State-run Statoil ASA(ADR) (NYSE: STO) is NORW's largest individual holding at a weight of 15.3 percent, or 560 basis points more than NORW allocates to its second-largest holding.
- [By Cameron Swinehart]
Going forward I will be looking to add investments on my watchlist and trim other positions. It will be interesting to see how an overweight commodity portfolio will perform relative to the rest of the market.
Cost Basis# SharesCurrent Price% of PortfolioCurrent ValueReturnMetal/Miners Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS)$12.4985$11.043.75%$938.40-13.13%Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV)$7.95125$8.744.37%$1,092.509.04%FreePort-McMoran (FCX)$31.6731$33.874.20%$1,049.976.50%Ishares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING)$13.0695$10.644.04%$1,010.80-22.74%Energy Statoil ASA(STO)$21.7940$22.683.63%$907.203.92%Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR)$27.5636$27.874.01%$1,003.321.11%ConocoPhillips (COP)$63.6822.43$71.006.37%$1,592.5310.31%Agriculture CVR Partner LP (UAN)$26.3630.9$18.932.34%$584.94-39.25%Adecoagro$6.78125$7.443.72%$930.008.87%Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)$34.8030$37.244.47%$1,117.206.55%Mixed Commodity Powershares DB Commodity Index (DBC)$26.3540$25.954.15%$1,038.00-1.54%Sprott Resource Corp$3.34400$2.714.34%$1,084.00-23.25% Total % of portfolio49.40% Cost Basis12,666.00 Current Value12,348.86 Return-2.50% Source: Investing For The Future Surge In Commodity Prices
Disclosure: I am long ADM, FCX, UAN, AGRO, RING, VNR, SCPZF.PK, COP, DBC, PHYS, PSLV. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More…)
- [By Jayson Derrick]
BP plc (ADR) (NYSE: BP), Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR) (NYSE: RDS-A) (NYSE: RDS-B) and Statoil ASA(ADR) (NYSE: STO) are expected to outperform their peers by offering: 1) the greatest rate of change in cost reduction through technology and innovation, 2) upstream portfolios with an attractive risk to reward profile and 3) sufficient liquidity to invest in future growth.
- [By Paul Ausick]
Norway’s Statoil ASA (NYSE: STO) announced this morning that it has acquired stakes in two North Sea projects from France’s Total S.A. (NYSE: TOT). The transaction, valued at $1.45 billion, includes a 51% equity stake in the Martin Linge field and a 40% stake in the Garantiana discovery, both located on Norway’s continental shelf.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
We believe that the equity market has neutralised much of its underweight energy positioning in 4Q/1Q, but was caught by the sharp rally in crude from end-January. Our base-case sees oil prices still higher by end-2016 (we see >$50/bbl), albeit with a choppy 2Q likely ahead. In this scenario a modest, rather than fully-fledged price-recovery we continue to place a lot of importance on self-help in driving ROE expansion (as opposed to relying simply on oil-leverage). Value-adjusted, we like the self-help stories around Total, Chevron, Statoil (STO), Royal Dutch Shell and Eni (E) in the group. Total is on the Citi European Focus list.
Top Low Price Stocks To Watch For 2018: Astro-Med, Inc.(ALOT)
- [By Monica Gerson]
Astro-Med, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALOT) is projected to post its quarterly earnings at $0.21 per share on revenue of $25.50 million.
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd (NYSE: BXE) is expected to post a quarterly loss at $0.10 per share on revenue of $71.27 million.
Top Low Price Stocks To Watch For 2018: StoneMor Partners L.P.(STON)
- [By Monica Gerson]
The list of below stocks is notable as the shares have traded on sequentially increasing volume spanning the trading days from September 16 to September 20:
Top Low Price Stocks To Watch For 2018: Farmer Brothers Company(FARM)
- [By Matt Hogan]
Finbox.io fair value data (as of January 4) shows that there are only five US manufacturing stocks that have 25% or more margin of safety: Vera Bradley, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRA), Cooper Tire & Rubber Co (NYSE: CTB), Farmer Brothers Co. (NASDAQ: FARM), Allergan plc Ordinary Shares (NYSE: AGN) and Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (NASDAQ: MPAA).